Technical View: Nifty Eyes 26,000 Milestone, Bank Nifty Crosses 54,000 for the First Time

On September 23, 2024, the Nifty 50 maintained its upward trajectory, moving closer to the key psychological barrier of 26,000. With this bullish momentum, the index is expected to breach the 26,000 level in upcoming sessions. However, experts emphasize that sustainability beyond this mark will be crucial for continued gains. On the downside, 25,800 is expected to serve as immediate support, while 25,500 will be a crucial level to watch.

Nifty 50 Performance: The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,873 and remained in positive territory throughout the day. It touched a new intraday high of 25,956 before consolidating slightly and closing at 25,939, gaining 148 points. This marked a new record close for the index, which has been on a winning streak for three straight sessions. On the technical front, the index has formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, bolstered by positive trends in momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Expert Analysis: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, pointed out that the daily charts show a bullish candlestick formation, indicating further upward movement. The index has been forming a "higher highs-higher lows" pattern, which reinforces its positive momentum. However, Chouhan warns that despite the bullish market sentiment, overbought conditions could lead to a period of rangebound activity in the short term. For day traders, the 25,850–25,800 zone will act as strong support, while the immediate resistance levels lie between 26,050 and 26,100. If Nifty fails to hold above 25,800, the uptrend could be at risk, prompting traders to exit long positions.

Options Data: Analysis of monthly options data reveals that the maximum Call open interest is at the 27,000 strike price, suggesting this could be a medium-term target for the Nifty 50. Other key levels include 26,000 and 26,500 strikes. The highest Call writing was observed at the 27,000 strike, followed by the 25,900 and 26,400 strikes, indicating that 26,000 is a critical resistance point. On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, with 25,500 and 25,700 being other significant levels. Put writing was most active at the 25,900 and 25,800 strikes, further confirming that 26,000 is a key resistance level, while support is solid around 25,800.

Bank Nifty: The Bank Nifty index also continued its rally for the eighth consecutive session, crossing the 54,000 mark for the first time. It rose by 313 points to close at 54,106, forming a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, supported by strong momentum indicators. According to Chandan Taparia, Senior Vice President and Analyst of Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the Bank Nifty needs to stay above the 53,750 zone to maintain its upward movement towards 54,500 and 55,000 levels. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 53,750, with additional support at 53,500.

Volatility and India VIX: Volatility saw a sharp increase, though it remained at relatively low levels below the 14 mark. The India VIX, often referred to as the "fear gauge," rose by 7.78% to 13.79 from 12.79 in the previous session. If the VIX climbs above the 15 mark and sustains, it could signal increased caution for bulls, as higher volatility could lead to more unpredictable market movements.

Outlook: While the overall market sentiment remains bullish, experts are keeping a close eye on key levels. Nifty is expected to test the 26,000 resistance soon, but sustainability beyond this point will be crucial. A correction could be on the cards if the index fails to hold above 25,800. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty's strength signals continued upward momentum for banking stocks, with the index aiming for 54,500–55,000 levels in the near term.

In conclusion, while the market is in a bullish phase, short-term caution is advised as overbought conditions and rising volatility may lead to consolidation or minor corrections. Traders are encouraged to adopt a trailing stop-loss strategy to safeguard their gains, particularly if Nifty struggles to maintain its momentum beyond the 26,000 level.

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Retail Investors Propel 12x Surge in Index Fund Folios: Zerodha Study

Retail investors have played a crucial role in the explosive growth of index funds, with a study by Zerodha Fund House revealing a 12-fold increase in the number of retail folios in these funds over the past three years. As per the study, retail folios in index funds surged from 4.95 lakh in March 2020 to a staggering 59.37 lakh by December 2023. This growth underscores a rising interest among individual investors in passive investing, which offers a diversified portfolio with relatively lower management costs.

 

In tandem with the increase in folios, the overall number of index mutual funds in the market has also seen remarkable growth. From just 44 in March 2020, the number of available index mutual funds ballooned to around 207 by March 2024. This translates to a significant growth of 370 percent, showcasing the expanding options for investors seeking a low-cost alternative to actively managed funds.

 

One of the key highlights of the study was the substantial increase in the assets under management (AUM) of index funds, both in equity and debt categories. The total AUM of index funds grew by approximately 25 times, reaching ₹2.13 lakh crore by March 2024, up from its March 2020 levels. Notably, debt index funds emerged as a dominant force within this space, contributing 51.5 percent of the total AUM. Until March 2021, debt index funds had negligible assets, but they have now crossed the ₹1.1 lakh crore mark as of March 2024, reflecting a growing preference among investors for fixed-income index funds.

 

The report further indicated that as of March 31, 2024, there were 120 equity index funds and 87 debt index funds available to investors. The dominance of the Nifty 50 index is particularly significant, with 70.7 percent of the total AUM of index funds, or ₹52,000 crore, allocated to Nifty 50 funds. This reflects a clear preference for large-cap stocks among investors seeking stability and lower volatility. The Nifty Next 50 index, which holds 14.6 percent of total AUM at ₹10,000 crore, also attracted investors, offering exposure to mid-cap and small-cap stocks for those with a more balanced risk appetite.

 

The Zerodha report also pointed out that the total assets in the index fund category reached a record high of ₹2.43 lakh crore by June 2024. Over the past three years, index funds have experienced the highest AUM growth across all mutual fund categories, recording a phenomenal 900 percent increase. This surge in assets reflects the growing popularity of index funds among both retail and institutional investors, driven by factors such as transparency, lower costs, and the potential for consistent returns.

 

With retail investors continuing to embrace index funds, the category is poised for further growth. As the study concludes, the shift towards passive investing is gaining traction, offering a promising avenue for investors looking to capitalize on broad market performance without the higher fees associated with active management.

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Nifty 50 Eyes Further Gains: 15 Key Points to Know Before Market Opening

On September 17, 2024, the Nifty 50 achieved a new closing high of 25,419 with a moderate gain of 35 points. Positive signals from momentum indicators like RSI and MACD supported the bullish trend. Experts suggest that if the index decisively closes above 25,500 or breaks through its upward-sloping resistance trendline, the market could rally towards 25,800. The immediate support level is pegged at 25,200.

Here are 15 crucial data points to guide your trading decisions for the next session:

1) Key Nifty 50 Levels

• Resistance: 25,438, 25,460, and 25,494 (based on pivot points).
• Support: 25,370, 25,349, and 25,315.

2) Key Bank Nifty Levels

• Resistance: 52,262, 52,309, and 52,385 (based on pivot points).
• Support: 52,110, 52,063, and 51,987.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

• 26,000 strike has the maximum open interest, with 1.07 crore contracts, indicating strong resistance.
• 25,500 strike saw 47.47 lakh contracts of open interest, offering short-term insights into resistance levels.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

• 25,000 strike holds the highest open interest of 60.69 lakh contracts, acting as key support.
• Significant Put writing was observed at 25,400 strike, with an addition of 10.32 lakh contracts.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

• 53,000 strike has the highest open interest at 34.85 lakh contracts, marking resistance.
• Heavy Call writing was noted at 52,500 strike, with 13.87 lakh contracts added.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

• 52,000 strike saw the highest open interest with 36.11 lakh contracts, serving as critical support.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

• DIIs bought shares worth Rs 874 crore, while FIIs net bought Rs 483 crore, signaling positive institutional interest.

8) Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

• The Nifty PCR increased to 1.3, indicating bullish sentiment, as traders are more inclined towards Put selling.

9) India VIX

• India VIX, an indicator of market volatility, rose by 1.04% to 12.59, still favoring bulls despite a slight uptick.

10) Long Build-up

• 30 stocks showed a long build-up, with rising open interest and price, suggesting continued bullish positions.

11) Long Unwinding

• 47 stocks saw long unwinding, marked by declining open interest and prices, indicating profit booking.

12) Short Build-up

• A total of 66 stocks experienced a short build-up, with increasing open interest and falling prices, indicating bearish sentiment.

13) Short-Covering

• 41 stocks witnessed short-covering, signaling traders closing their short positions due to rising prices.

14) High Delivery Trades

• Delivery trades showed strong investor interest in select stocks, indicating a preference for long-term holdings.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

• New Entries: Biocon, Punjab National Bank.
• Existing: Aarti Industries, Balrampur Chini Mills, Bandhan Bank, and others.

These insights provide a solid foundation for navigating the market's opening on Wednesday. Ensure you adjust your strategies based on key support and resistance levels to spot potential opportunities.

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DIIs and FIIs Active in the Market: Net Purchases of ₹97 Crore and ₹975 Crore Respectively

On September 4, 2024, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth ₹97.35 crore, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers of ₹975.46 crore, according to provisional data from the NSE. DIIs purchased ₹13,584 crore worth of shares and sold ₹13,487 crore, whereas FIIs acquired ₹16,585 crore in shares and sold equities valued at ₹15,610 crore during the session.

Year-to-date, FIIs have net sold shares worth ₹1.36 lakh crore, while DIIs have net bought shares totaling ₹3.11 lakh crore.

In market performance, the Sensex closed down by 202.80 points or 0.25% at 82,352.64, and the Nifty fell by 81.15 points or 0.32% to 25,198.70. Top gainers on the Nifty included Asian Paints, Grasim Industries, HUL, Apollo Hospitals, and Sun Pharma, while the biggest losers were Wipro, Coal India, ONGC, Hindalco Industries, and M&M.

Sector-wise, FMCG, realty, and pharma stocks saw gains, while auto, banking, energy, IT, and metals sectors faced declines. Siddharth Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services noted that despite global concerns causing a dip, domestic equities showed resilience with a gradual recovery.

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Market Update and Trading Plan for Nifty and Bank Nifty

The market closed with a positive bias on September 3, continuing its upward journey for the 14th consecutive session. Most experts predict that the ongoing consolidation may break out on the higher side. If the Nifty closes above 25,300, the immediate target is 25,400, with support levels at 25,200 and 25,000. For Bank Nifty, holding above 51,500 could push it to 52,000, with key support at 51,000.

 

Nifty Outlook and Strategy:

Ashish Kyal, Waves Strategy Advisors:

  The Nifty is consolidating at the higher end, with a breach below 25,180 being a concern. The trend remains positive, with a target of 25,361 (Gann).

Ø  Key Resistance: 25,650 (September Futures)

Ø  Key Support: 25,180 (September Futures)

Ø  Strategy: Create long positions on a break above 25,420 with a stop-loss at 25,340 and a target of 25,550, followed by 25,650.

 

 Apurva Sheth, SAMCO Securities:

  Despite the 14-day winning streak, September has historically been a negative month for Nifty. Expect a flat to negative bias in the near term.

Ø  Key Resistance: 25,395, 25,500, 26,000

Ø  Key Support: 25,000, 24,800, 24,500

Ø  Strategy: Employ a Call Ratio Spread strategy with a target profit of Rs 3,500 or exit if losses exceed Rs 2,000.

 

Riyank Arora, Mehta Equities:

  The Nifty could move towards 25,500 and 25,600 levels, with potential to reach 26,000 eventually.

   Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,600

   Key Support: 25,200, 25,000

   Strategy: Buy at CMP of 25,280 with a stop-loss at 25,200, targeting 25,500 and 25,600.

 

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning:

Ashish Kyal, Waves Strategy Advisors:

  Bank Nifty closed above the previous day's high, signaling a positive trend. The index has maintained its low since August 14, suggesting a bullish outlook.

Ø  Key Resistance: 52,100 (September Futures)

Ø  Key Support: 51,300 (September Futures)

Ø  Strategy: Long positions above 51,900 with a target of 52,100, followed by 52,390, as long as 51,500 holds.

 

 Apurva Sheth, SAMCO Securities:

  Bank Nifty has underperformed but is now showing signs of recovery. Closing above 51,500 indicates bullish momentum, with private sector banks leading.

Ø  Key Resistance: 52,000, 53,000

Ø  Key Support: 51,500, 51,133

Ø  Strategy: Execute a Bull Call Spread by buying a 51,800 strike Call and selling a 52,500 strike Call for the September 11 expiry. Target profit is Rs 6,000.

 

 Riyank Arora, Mehta Equities:

  Bank Nifty has broken above 51,500, signaling targets of 52,000 and 52,500. Strong buying momentum in banking stocks supports this bullish trend.

Ø  Key Resistance: 52,000, 52,200

Ø  Key Support: 51,400, 51,000

Ø  Strategy: Buy at CMP of 51,689, with a stop-loss at 51,400, targeting 52,000 and 52,500.

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